Reference is made to the Fiji Times article of 3rd August 2020 with the title “Four cyclones Forecast.” The article stated that Fiji is forecasted to be hit by four tropical cyclones in the November 2020 to April 2021 season. This prediction is from a joint modelling work between researchers from University of Newcastle and National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), New Zealand.
Director Fiji Meteorological Service, Mr. Misaele Funaki said that the prediction of 4 tropical cyclones to affect Fiji is an assumption based on current and predicted climatological drivers of tropical cyclones in our region.
“Tropical cyclone activities in the Pacific Island region are closely associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is a fluctuation of oceanic and atmospheric condition between the eastern and western tropical Pacific Ocean” said Mr Funaki. Mr. Funaki further explained that the coming tropical cyclone season is predicted to be driven by a weak La Niña.
“On average two to one tropical cyclones pass through Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone every season,” added Mr Funaki. “During La Niña events, Fiji experiences close to average number of tropical cyclones, that is, close to 2. However, the risk of tropical cyclones to affect Fiji is greatest during an El Niño event, with an average of 2.5 tropical cyclones.
On the other hand, Fiji gets the least number of tropical cyclones during a neutral season, with an average of 1.8 tropical cyclones. Therefore, with the anticipation of weak La Niña background climate, the coming tropical cyclone season is likely to be close to average, that is, around 2 tropical cyclones are likely to affect Fiji.”
Meanwhile, Director National Disaster Management Office Ms. Vasiti Soko reassured the public that the NDMO is working very closely with the Fiji Meteorological Service in ensuring system and process are in place to prepare civil servants and its first responders as well as the communities to prepare for a disaster.
Director Soko further stated that whilst we appreciate the work carried out by other scientist, the Fijian Government’s official source of information for any weather forecast is the Fiji Meteorological Service.
“The general public should not panic unless reliable information is released from FMS themselves,” Soko said.
Director Met, Mr Funaki said that the National Meteorological Services in the region (Australia and New Zealand included) normally issue the tropical cyclone seasonal outlook around October every year.
“This is due to the fact that the accuracy of the seasonal prediction of the tropical cyclone activity would be greatest at this time of the year before the beginning of the season.
Therefore, making a prediction now is well ahead of time, with a lower confidence,” Mr Funaki said.
A detailed seasonal prediction for Fiji and the Pacific Island region will be issued by Fiji Meteorological Service in October. This would provide the most up-to-date information on the anticipated tropical cyclone risk well before the season begins.
Both Directors would like to reiterate that the Government’s best interest is the Fijian people and that both the Met Office and the NDMO will release reliable information in a timely manner.