Tropical Cyclone “RENE” formed just south of Pukapuka and Nassau around 2245 hrs FST (0945 UTC) on 11 February 2010.
The system (10F originated north of Samoa a day and went through rapid intensification forcing its declaration as a Tropical Cyclone within so short time span. It is currently drifting slowly eastwards but expected to take a sharp turn towards southwest within next 12 hours.
TC Rene is presently a Category 2 cyclone with average winds estimated to be 50 knots (95km/hr) and momentary gusts to 75 knots (140 km/hr) close to centre. It should intensify further and reach Category 3 status within the next 24 hours.
Current indications are that once on a southwesterly course, TC Rene should continue moving in that direction for two days or more with its centre passing south of the Samoas and north of Niue as it heads in the direction of Tonga. However, model predictions vary significantly with some pushing the centre close to the Samoas while others bringing it closer to Niue. Whether the cyclone continues onto Tonga or curves south a little earlier is another uncertainty. Given the very peculiar path of TC Rene, anything is possible.
Given the projected path and uncertainities in its future movement, TC Rene may pose a direct threat to American Samoa, Samoa, Niue and Tonga. Strong winds and heavy swells could affect Fiji’s Lau Group and other places later.
TC Rene is the fifth cyclone to occur in the RSMC Nadi-TCC area of responsibility and the seventh to form in Southwest Pacific region.
Director Meteorology Mr Rajendra Prasad said at this stage Fiji will not feel the effects of the tropical cyclone ‘Rene’ and the scenario has to be closely monitored for the next three days.